U.S. AIDS Deaths are on the decline. The main reason for the drop is that new combination drug therapies are delaying progression from HIV infection to full blown AIDS. 

While the number of new AIDS diagnoses in the United States declined 15 percent among white homosexual and bisexual men, the incidence of AIDS among heterosexuals continues to rise, increasing 11 percent among men and 7 percent among women. Overall, the number of women diagnosed with AIDS in the United States increased by more than 60 percent from 1991 to 1995. Worldwide it is estimated that 2.3 million people died of AIDS in 1997 a 50 percent increase over 1996. Nearly half of those deaths were in women, and 460,000 were in children under 15. 

In the United States, based on national HIV prevalence estimates, a minimum of 60,000 to 115,000 HIV-infected women not yet diagnosed with AIDS will be requiring care in years to come, twice as many as have been diagnosed as having AIDS since the epidemic began.

An estimated 3.9 million Americans have been infected with the Hepatitis C virus (HCV). One source has estimated that HCV will be killing more Americans than AIDS by 2010.




           
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Reasons for Concern:

These silent killers have taken on the pyramid effect. With the number of youth being infected, people in lower income brackets being infected, lack of testing due to finances, irresponsibility and indifference; combined with HCV and HIV's incubation period: make valid census impossible. 

An effective way to estimate the future of HCV and HIV is to parallel them with genital herpes -- another virus with no incubation period. Overall, genital herpes infections jumped 30% in the United States from 1976 to 1994, the CDC said, with about one in five Americans over 12 years of age has the sexually transmitted infection. The data gathered between 1988 and 1994 was compared with a similar study done from 1976 to 1980. The results suggest that: 45 million Americans are infected with the herpes virus, high risk behavior is prevalent, and mother-child infection is widespread.

If current transmission rates hold steady, by the year 2000 the number of people living with HIV could soar to over 50 million. (As of Dec. 1999 it did.) The AIDS pandemic has taken on the pyramid effect and the numbers have just begun to soar. The full impact of HCV and the AIDS pandemic in terms of related illness, medical expenses overriding their exchangeable value, unproductivity and mortality has just begun.

Over 16,000 new victims are infected with HIV alone every day. One in every 100 sexually active adults worldwide is infected with HIV, and only one in 10 knows they are infected.

Worldwide over 40 million children stand to lose one or both parents to AIDS over the next 13 years, with catastrophic results. AIDS and HCV will create generations of children needing financial support, protection, love and care. 

In countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America, HIV/AIDS is unraveling years of progress in economic and social development. Life expectancy which has been steadily on the rise for the last three decades will drop to 40 years or less in nine sub-Saharan countries by the year 2010. 

In Mexico, the damage was contained. A $48 billion international loan and Mexico was quickly on the road to recovery. South Korea now wants the same kind of direct help. The Asian rot is a far deadlier strain than the Mexican. Starting in Thailand in June, it had spread to the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia by July. So far this year, stock markets in these four nations are down an average of 65 percent. And their national currencies have fallen similarly. As 1997 ended, the South Korea devaluation -- threatened Japan, it sent Wall Street down sharply. 

The future could hold a far deadlier strain than the Mexican and Korean devaluation. The nine sub-Saharan countries unraveling could sanction their own domino effect -- daunting Wall Street. 

Include in this the Gray-Wave. That is life expectancy alone will increase beyond the ability of medicine: there will be a shortage of trained doctors, nurses, and hospital facilities. Global Warming will increase the spread of disease; population growth and scores of children requiring government assistance will compound our dilemma. 

The economic cost of these factors could be reflected by an overburden of social medical response that could eventually deny health services for the masses, in many nations. If this medical holocaust is not contained, it could demand our total focus. Most high end consumer products and services could be severely hampered if societies needs become acute: setting a snowball in motion. 

Denial is not a shield, ignorance is not a sanctuary. We must realistically confront and evaluate the world around us to expand our awareness. Invalidating denial and illusion - prompting compassion and love.